Let's consider how the immigration requirements have shifted in the last 10 years. 10 years ago, you needed to show access to €50,000 in assets, per person. That is now lowered to about €8,000 for the first adult, half for the second applicant. 10 years ago, you had to prove you were HIV-negative. That has been removed. You had to provide a report from your physician of all ongoing illnesses, diseases and medications taken. These have been removed. Added to the requirements is a funded bank account in Portugal, again approximately €8,000, and one year contracted accommodations. The Golden Visa program is not aimed at Americans, who use it the least, yet it has come under review each year due to pressures from financial authorities as fraud within the program and the overbuidling of gentrified areas continued to rise. In years to come, it is likely to be easier to immigrate to Portugal as the bureacractic system improves.
While I agree with you that Portugal's policies around immigration are unlikely to significantly change in the next four years, I think we all need to keep in mind that the connection between politics and reality is tenuous at best in the current world. The US has demographic challenges as well (although obviously not to the extent that Portugal), and undoubtedly benefits economically from Mexican immigrants, but that didn't stop Donald Trump from being elected in large part through demonizing Mexican immigrants and promising to build a wall (and that Mexico would pay for it).
It's not hard to imagine that at some point, right-wing Portuguese politicians could attempt to stir people up by blaming whatever they're unhappy about on rich foreigners moving here and driving up the cost of real estate in Lisbon and Porto.
In fact, it's starting already. I took a look at Chega's manifesto for the legislative elections that just took place. In case anyone actually reads this and doesn't know, Chega (Portuguese for "Enough") is the far-right political party that gained seats in the parliament in the election earlier this year. Following is an excerpt (translated from the Portuguese using Google Translate because I was feeling too lazy to do it myself): "CHEGA refuses to make the demographic replacement of the Portuguese by non-Portuguese the answer to the fall in birth rates. The legitimate solution involves policies that prevent the reverse migratory flow, the departure of thousands and thousands of our compatriots every year."
Chega only got about 7% of the vote in the last election if I remember correctly, but that was significantly higher than the previous election.
With all that said, I don't expect things to change in the next four years. In reality, there is no reason why Portugal couldn't pursue policies to reduce emigration while maintaining the current immigration policy. As a reality-based person, I would argue that to the extent that immigration boosts Portugal's economy, it will help to reduce emigration. But, as those of us from the US are all too painfully aware, a large number of voters are not reality based.
I would not discourage anyone from coming to Portugal out of fears of changes in immigration policy. But, I'm also getting tired of reading fantasy posts on certain Facebook groups that portray Portugal as some kind of magical land of milk and honey where everyone gets along all the time and there are no social problems. From what I can see so far, Portugal's politics are saner than the US's. But Portugal is not magically immune from the appeal of right-wing authoritarian, identity-based politics. It remains to be seen how recent events in Ukraine will play out in Europe and in Portugal. My hope is that it will strengthen the EU and NATO, and reduce some of the appeal of Putin fanboy and fangirl politicians in the US and Western Europe. I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
Hi Ken, I agree that the rise of Chega is a concern. And yes, things are not perfect. (I am actually writing a post now related to one of the “big issues”.) It also should be noted that many in the EU view Ukrainian refugees very differently than Syrian refugees. White vs brown….
Hi Nancy, thanks for the reply and also for your thoughtful blog, I always look forward to your posts. I do agree with what you said overall, and in particular I don't think it's likely that Portugal would do anything based on the number of Americans coming here which as you noted is small in the context of overall immigration to Portugal
Your point about how many in the EU view Ukrainian refugees is very well taken too. The fact that Ukrainians are white and Christian undoubtedly has a lot to do with the differing responses compared to Syrians.
Enjoy your articles as always. It is funny, I had a similar fright about seeing so many Americans also trying to 'escape' the USA.
It is interesting - I am surprised there are not more Brazilians, Indians, Africans, etc - trying to get into Portugal.
Does Portugal count the amount of people illegally in the country? I have a friend who lives in the country and says that Portugal undercounts the amount of Brazilians et al because they don't count the people living illegally. This friend actually says that Portugal doesn't have the capacity to deport people, and doesn't. Given that this indeed true, I'm surprised more people don't come en masse.
Regarding the Ukrainians one can't help but wonder if mass migration from them (plus inevitable climate refugees) will destroy the predictions as shown in your graph. I'd be very surprised to see the population dip down due to what will be increased migration due to refugees and the like.
Let's consider how the immigration requirements have shifted in the last 10 years. 10 years ago, you needed to show access to €50,000 in assets, per person. That is now lowered to about €8,000 for the first adult, half for the second applicant. 10 years ago, you had to prove you were HIV-negative. That has been removed. You had to provide a report from your physician of all ongoing illnesses, diseases and medications taken. These have been removed. Added to the requirements is a funded bank account in Portugal, again approximately €8,000, and one year contracted accommodations. The Golden Visa program is not aimed at Americans, who use it the least, yet it has come under review each year due to pressures from financial authorities as fraud within the program and the overbuidling of gentrified areas continued to rise. In years to come, it is likely to be easier to immigrate to Portugal as the bureacractic system improves.
Thanks for this perspective…very helpful
While I agree with you that Portugal's policies around immigration are unlikely to significantly change in the next four years, I think we all need to keep in mind that the connection between politics and reality is tenuous at best in the current world. The US has demographic challenges as well (although obviously not to the extent that Portugal), and undoubtedly benefits economically from Mexican immigrants, but that didn't stop Donald Trump from being elected in large part through demonizing Mexican immigrants and promising to build a wall (and that Mexico would pay for it).
It's not hard to imagine that at some point, right-wing Portuguese politicians could attempt to stir people up by blaming whatever they're unhappy about on rich foreigners moving here and driving up the cost of real estate in Lisbon and Porto.
In fact, it's starting already. I took a look at Chega's manifesto for the legislative elections that just took place. In case anyone actually reads this and doesn't know, Chega (Portuguese for "Enough") is the far-right political party that gained seats in the parliament in the election earlier this year. Following is an excerpt (translated from the Portuguese using Google Translate because I was feeling too lazy to do it myself): "CHEGA refuses to make the demographic replacement of the Portuguese by non-Portuguese the answer to the fall in birth rates. The legitimate solution involves policies that prevent the reverse migratory flow, the departure of thousands and thousands of our compatriots every year."
Chega only got about 7% of the vote in the last election if I remember correctly, but that was significantly higher than the previous election.
With all that said, I don't expect things to change in the next four years. In reality, there is no reason why Portugal couldn't pursue policies to reduce emigration while maintaining the current immigration policy. As a reality-based person, I would argue that to the extent that immigration boosts Portugal's economy, it will help to reduce emigration. But, as those of us from the US are all too painfully aware, a large number of voters are not reality based.
I would not discourage anyone from coming to Portugal out of fears of changes in immigration policy. But, I'm also getting tired of reading fantasy posts on certain Facebook groups that portray Portugal as some kind of magical land of milk and honey where everyone gets along all the time and there are no social problems. From what I can see so far, Portugal's politics are saner than the US's. But Portugal is not magically immune from the appeal of right-wing authoritarian, identity-based politics. It remains to be seen how recent events in Ukraine will play out in Europe and in Portugal. My hope is that it will strengthen the EU and NATO, and reduce some of the appeal of Putin fanboy and fangirl politicians in the US and Western Europe. I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
Hi Ken, I agree that the rise of Chega is a concern. And yes, things are not perfect. (I am actually writing a post now related to one of the “big issues”.) It also should be noted that many in the EU view Ukrainian refugees very differently than Syrian refugees. White vs brown….
Hi Nancy, thanks for the reply and also for your thoughtful blog, I always look forward to your posts. I do agree with what you said overall, and in particular I don't think it's likely that Portugal would do anything based on the number of Americans coming here which as you noted is small in the context of overall immigration to Portugal
Your point about how many in the EU view Ukrainian refugees is very well taken too. The fact that Ukrainians are white and Christian undoubtedly has a lot to do with the differing responses compared to Syrians.
Enjoy your articles as always. It is funny, I had a similar fright about seeing so many Americans also trying to 'escape' the USA.
It is interesting - I am surprised there are not more Brazilians, Indians, Africans, etc - trying to get into Portugal.
Does Portugal count the amount of people illegally in the country? I have a friend who lives in the country and says that Portugal undercounts the amount of Brazilians et al because they don't count the people living illegally. This friend actually says that Portugal doesn't have the capacity to deport people, and doesn't. Given that this indeed true, I'm surprised more people don't come en masse.
Regarding the Ukrainians one can't help but wonder if mass migration from them (plus inevitable climate refugees) will destroy the predictions as shown in your graph. I'd be very surprised to see the population dip down due to what will be increased migration due to refugees and the like.
Thanks these stats are from SEF which counts legal residents.