Relax, Portugal Will Still Want You
Population decline and economic realities
About twice a month I get an email from a reader that worries that Portugal will change or tighten its immigration policy. The email goes something like this:
We aren’t ready to retire for another four years, but are thinking that that might be too late. It seems so many Americans are moving to Portugal that they might cut off immigration. They changed the Golden Visa requirements. They added requirements to the D7 visa application. What do you think?
I think you should relax.
D7 Visas & Buying a New Car
Okay, okay…I know these two things seem to have nothing in common. But stick with me here and you will understand why they are related.
Have you ever bought a new car? If so, the day after you drove it off the lot you probably thought to yourself … “boy, a lot of people have bought the same car I have.” This is called the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon or more commonly, the frequency illusion.
You’re bombarded with information all around you every single second — just think about how many items are in your vicinity at this moment you’re not actively staring about. Your brain has to be judicious in what it lets through. For instance, when you’re driving to work, your brain largely ignores the hoards of varying models you pass. Once you purchase a new car and it’s under your possession, your brain adjusts, adding the particular model to its list of things to notice. — thenewwheel.com
Add to this the fact that while researching where you might want to move, preparing your D7 visa, etc. you are likely reading blogs (like this), watching YouTube videos, and scouring expat Facebook groups. All these activities further support your frequency illusion.
The following is from the Washington Post, 2 November 2020:
Weary from political strife and a pandemic, some Americans are fleeing the country
I’m not an expert, but I assume I took more note of this headline because at the time we were waiting to fly to Portugal, felt weary of the political strife in the US, etc…i.e. the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon in action.
Just the Facts
But it is helpful to put such things in perspective. To just look at a few statistics:
First, not everyone is leaving the US and of those that are…only a fraction are coming to Portugal. The US government does not formally track how many Americans have emigrated from the country, but the estimate is 9-10 million.
No surprise, Mexico is the home to more American expats than any other country with about 1.5million.
By comparison, one source estimated that about 6,600 Americans live in Portugal. (In 2020, SEF reported that about 4,000 USA citizens had legal residence permits in Portugal. But informally, the US Embassy estimates that about 26,000 US citizens live in Portugal. It would seem it is hard to keep track of us.)
So, no, Portugal is not being overrun by Americans. But more importantly, it would like to have more!
Population & Economics
If you were an economist, the population projection you see above would worry you. Over only 30 years, this chart projects a loss of more than 1 million people and an increase in the median age of six years. Fewer workers and more older people to support…you don’t need to understand economics to know that this is a recipe for disaster.
Analysts projected that, without any demographic changes, Portugal’s population would shrink below the threshold of 10 million inhabitants, down 1.1 million people by 2050 to 9.1 million. Portuguese economists assessed that a population this low would threaten the country’s economic stability and viability. — Portugal Living Magazine
Here’s the Good News
So you can appreciate why the chart above caused the English language Portuguese newspaper Portugal Resident to exclaim:
The Portuguese population has finally GROWN for the first time in 10 years. National statistics institute INE registered the 0.19% growth in 2019 stressing the increase was all down to the numbers of people moving here and becoming resident.
If it wasn’t for these immigrants, the country as a whole would still be ‘losing’ citizens, by 0.25%. —Portugal Resident
So relax, if retirement is four years away…Portugal will still be here with open arms. In fact, a study was done that showed that even retired immigrants have a positive impact on the Portuguese economy.
Over the past decade the financial balance of the Social Security with foreigner citizens was positive and according to a research study sponsored by the Observatory of Migrations dating from 2012, accounting for the contributions and subtracting spending on social benefits in a context of rising unemployment, immigration continues to contribute, with 253 million Euros, to the Portuguese Social Security". — European Commission
And, by chance, if you are a bit younger and want to live and work in Portugal…please consider making the move! You can check out YouTubers like this one that has made the move, or read how on the SEF website.
Next Week: comparing expenses (Cascais - VRSA) and how the Portuguese view global warming.
Let's consider how the immigration requirements have shifted in the last 10 years. 10 years ago, you needed to show access to €50,000 in assets, per person. That is now lowered to about €8,000 for the first adult, half for the second applicant. 10 years ago, you had to prove you were HIV-negative. That has been removed. You had to provide a report from your physician of all ongoing illnesses, diseases and medications taken. These have been removed. Added to the requirements is a funded bank account in Portugal, again approximately €8,000, and one year contracted accommodations. The Golden Visa program is not aimed at Americans, who use it the least, yet it has come under review each year due to pressures from financial authorities as fraud within the program and the overbuidling of gentrified areas continued to rise. In years to come, it is likely to be easier to immigrate to Portugal as the bureacractic system improves.
While I agree with you that Portugal's policies around immigration are unlikely to significantly change in the next four years, I think we all need to keep in mind that the connection between politics and reality is tenuous at best in the current world. The US has demographic challenges as well (although obviously not to the extent that Portugal), and undoubtedly benefits economically from Mexican immigrants, but that didn't stop Donald Trump from being elected in large part through demonizing Mexican immigrants and promising to build a wall (and that Mexico would pay for it).
It's not hard to imagine that at some point, right-wing Portuguese politicians could attempt to stir people up by blaming whatever they're unhappy about on rich foreigners moving here and driving up the cost of real estate in Lisbon and Porto.
In fact, it's starting already. I took a look at Chega's manifesto for the legislative elections that just took place. In case anyone actually reads this and doesn't know, Chega (Portuguese for "Enough") is the far-right political party that gained seats in the parliament in the election earlier this year. Following is an excerpt (translated from the Portuguese using Google Translate because I was feeling too lazy to do it myself): "CHEGA refuses to make the demographic replacement of the Portuguese by non-Portuguese the answer to the fall in birth rates. The legitimate solution involves policies that prevent the reverse migratory flow, the departure of thousands and thousands of our compatriots every year."
Chega only got about 7% of the vote in the last election if I remember correctly, but that was significantly higher than the previous election.
With all that said, I don't expect things to change in the next four years. In reality, there is no reason why Portugal couldn't pursue policies to reduce emigration while maintaining the current immigration policy. As a reality-based person, I would argue that to the extent that immigration boosts Portugal's economy, it will help to reduce emigration. But, as those of us from the US are all too painfully aware, a large number of voters are not reality based.
I would not discourage anyone from coming to Portugal out of fears of changes in immigration policy. But, I'm also getting tired of reading fantasy posts on certain Facebook groups that portray Portugal as some kind of magical land of milk and honey where everyone gets along all the time and there are no social problems. From what I can see so far, Portugal's politics are saner than the US's. But Portugal is not magically immune from the appeal of right-wing authoritarian, identity-based politics. It remains to be seen how recent events in Ukraine will play out in Europe and in Portugal. My hope is that it will strengthen the EU and NATO, and reduce some of the appeal of Putin fanboy and fangirl politicians in the US and Western Europe. I suppose we'll have to wait and see.