The Portuguese are Voting

Calling a snap election

As you read this, people in Portugal are voting. Is this a “regular” election? No. It is being held because the President on 4 November 2021 dissolved the government (parliament) and ordered a snap election. He did this because the government failed to ratify a budget.

All New to Me

Let me be clear that I am not an expert on parliamentary systems of governance or Portuguese politics. As I wrote before, I had to do research just to understand this system of governance. And with over 20 parties contending, it can be a bit daunting for this foreigner. For example, I don’t fully appreciate the difference between the Socialist Party (led by António Costa and which held about 37% of the seats) and the Portuguese Social Democratic Party (led by Rui Rio which had held 28% of the seats). Perhaps because we got a holiday card from Mr. Costa, I tend to like him though. The articles I have read suggest that the Socialist Party will continue to hold the most seats.

What will happen this time is not entirely clear – polls predict a close and tightening race, though one with the Socialists and wider left bloc currently slightly ahead. But how any result translates into governments will be interesting. Incumbent Costa is clearly the more popular choice for Prime Minister, but another Socialist government will likely require the support of the same left-wing parties who caused this election by withdrawing support for his cabinet’s budget.—Electoral-Reform.org.uk

However, I have also read that some of the parties that in the past may have only had one seat in Parliament are picking up steam. For example, some polls suggest that the Chega party (a right-wing, nationalist party) will garner more support. Chega is currently polling third at 7.2%. As someone that has enjoyed and embraced the Portuguese collectivist mindset and open/welcoming attitude toward immigrants…gains by this party concerns me.

And, as a poorly informed outsider, I have one question. If the makeup of parliament does not change dramatically how will a “new” budget get ratified? What will have been accomplished?

Talking to CMTV, the secretary-general of the PS Socialist party also revealed that if his party ‘wins’ the elections on January 30 the new executive will be presenting exactly the same budgetary plans for this year as those that led to the fall of the government two months ago — PortugalResident.com

Election during a Pandemic

So while I can’t clearly articulate everything that is at stake, there are a few things that I think I know.

• First, unlike the US…elections in Portugal are held on Sunday. The assumption is that the vast majority of people are not working and thus have easier access to the polls. (Senator Manchin, didn’t you say you supported this?)

• This is the third time the Portuguese are being asked to participate in an election during this pandemic. Just the other day the Interior Ministry announced that voters under quarantine "will be able to leave their place of confinement on this day, strictly, to exercise their right to vote." These voters are encouraged to go at the end of the day when polling places are likely to be less crowded.

• Early voting started last weekend, and the number of mobile early voting stations (1,303 stations) was increased since the 2021 presidential election was held (628 stations). Again an effort to encourage voting in the republic. (Senator Sinema have you read that republican controlled statehouses are actually reducing polling places, eliminating voter dropboxes, purging voter rolls, etc. Does any of this concern you?)

• Campaigns here are pretty short. The first of 30 televised debates were held on 2 January. And, the official two-week campaigning period started on the 16th…it wasn’t until Wednesday, the 19th that I saw any public campaign gathering. I spotted a group of 20 or so carrying flags and chatting up people in the Mercado. Compare this to the US where the first US midterm primary is being held on March 1st (8 months before the election).

• Finally, agreeing on a budget right now is pretty important. At stake is how billions of euros in EU aid to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic will be spent. (Didn’t the US Congress just finagle around a few sacred rules to pass a budget in December?)

A Disheartened American

Okay, I admit it. This post is not as much about the Portuguese election as my feelings as an American. While I don’t have any plans to return to the country in which I was born, I still follow the news and what seems to be the slow (actually not that slow), painful death of the republic. A land that is no longer the United States of America…but just a hodgepodge of states that think they should go it alone. (Until, of course, there is a natural disaster and they open their arms to federal personnel and dollars.) A republic that somehow is allowing itself to be governed by fewer than 50% of the population. By a Senate that can secretly phone in a filibuster. A filibuster that has been “reformed” more than 160 times (to allow tax cuts, repeal rules, appoint Supreme Court judges) but is too sacred to protect a citizen’s right to vote.

In How Democracies Die, Levitsky and Ziblatt suggest that three criteria set the stage for the death of democracy: refusal to accept an election, violence, and the refusal of the party that is helped by the violence to condemn it. This book was published four years ago … but seems even more relevant today.

And so I mourn…

Editor’s Note 31 January 2022: The votes have been cast and the Socialist Party headed by António Costa won an absolute majority. So it would appear the votes exist for a budget to be passed and most likely Mr. Costa will continue as Prime Minister. As expected, the Chega party gained seats … there will be 12 in parliament. The PSD lost 3 MPs securing only 29.27% of the vote.