Portugal's Presidental Election
This week, and probably again next month...
I am certainly NOT an expert on Portuguese politics. I spend much more time following the shitshow in the US.1 However, I do know that there will be a vote on Sunday, 18 January 2026.
The Basics
The current President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, was a member of PSD but “suspended” his membership during the term of his presidency. Having served two 5-year terms, he is barred from running again. As the head of state, he has both ceremonial and political duties:
He represents Portugal in international affairs, e.g., ratifying treaties, conducting international visits with other world leaders, etc.
He appoints the Prime Minister (usually the Majority Leader) and other Ministers (given the PM’s guidance).
He is the Commander-in-Chief of the military.
He appoints the Attorney General.
He can determine if referendums make it to the ballot.
He promotes and can veto laws, or refer proposed laws to the Constitutional Court; and
He can dissolve Parliament.
While I have, from time to time, taken note of the President’s comments on international affairs, to me his most significant actions over the past 5 years have been referring laws to the Constitutional Court2 and dissolving Parliament3.
Who’s Running and Who’s Going to Win
This year, 45 people toyed with the idea of running for President, 14 formalized their candidacy, and 11 received the required number of votes to appear on the ballot.4 Of these, five have consistently been among the frontrunners.
Early on, it appeared Henrique Gouveia e Melo (a retired Admiral who led Portugal’s Covid-19 taskforce) was a clear frontrunner. However, more recently, he has fallen behind
Socialist António José Seguro, who now has a slim lead in recent polling, Chega candidate Andre Ventura, and Cotrim Figueiredo, the Liberal Initiative candidate.
Marques Mendes is the final “top tier” candidate supported by PSD.
To be elected, a candidate must receive 50% plus 1 vote. This is unlikely, and a second round of voting, of the two highest vote getters, will occur on 8 February. As I write this, there are 10 days until election day, so we don’t know who the final two candidates will be. One hopes that the focus over the final “formal” election period will be on issues rather than personal attacks and on how to find a way to work together to pass meaningful legislation.
What Are the Challenges
Obviously, I am not Portuguese. I live a fairly charmed life in Portugal … retired, owning a home, free from financial concerns, and benefitting from private healthcare. However, to me, it seems three of the important challenges facing Portugal are:
Housing: In Lisbon, residential properties now average €5,995 per square metre, i.e. $648.82 per square. This is roughly comparable to LA home prices today. While I realize Lisbon is the capital, one must consider that Lisbon’s median net salary is €1,700/month5 (roughly equivalent to $1979/month). And while Lisbon is an outlier, it seems many young adults are forced to live with their parents.
Salaries/Labor: While salaries have increased, Portugal’s wages are the lowest in Western Europe, and continued strikes do not seem to be having any impact on negotiations.
Healthcare: Many consider the SNS “unsustainable.” Doctors’ wages have fallen further behind Western European standards, ERs are understaffed and sometimes closed, waiting lists6 are growing, and many are not assigned a GP/FP.7
One hopes that whoever is elected can work with Parliament to address these issues.
While researching this post, I found that Portuguese voter turnout is lower than European averages. As an American, watching an Administration make daily attacks on its democracy, I truly hope the Portuguese people will participate next Sunday…and on 8 February.
Finally, and just for fun, if you want to practice your Portuguese comprehension skills, take time to watch this tongue-in-cheek video (with or without English subtitles).
Desejo-lhe tudo de bom, Até à próxima vez,
Nanc
Friendly reminder: Part 2 of my interview with Portugal Junkies can be found here. In addition to our renovation story, at the 18-minute mark, we talk about what someone needs to think about as they consider a move overseas.
I was tempted to write about the US this week. But I realize there are no words … at least none that begin with a letter other than F.
He referred proposed euthanasia and assisted suicide laws to the court in 2023 and the proposed changes in immigration/citizenship laws in 2025.
Parliament was dissolved in 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025.
Unfortunately, the ballot was printed with 14 names.
Higher than the national average.
Our HVAC guy, Reinaldo, waited more than 1 year for his hip replacement. BTW: he never showed up the next morning to repair our underfloor heating. The company I found that was scheduled to fix it on 29 December contacted me on the 28th to say they weren’t coming. I located another company in Almancil, and they showed up on time yesterday. They located the problem and attempted to fix the faulty sensor. It worked for a few hours and failed again last night. The good news is they told me this might happen, and that likely the sensor would need to be replaced. I expect they will return next week with the required part.
Though it does not affect us today, Denise and I have applied for a family doctor in our local saude. As we are both over 70, we should be given priority, but we have yet to be assigned.
Nancy, thank you for doing the work of researching and explaining the upcoming presidential election. Though the information is out there, many of us need it encapsulated, as you have done. Moving to a new country with a different language is a perplexing puzzle, so thank you for your patience and hard work as our advocate. We all know that you are doing this to help others, for no profit, and we love what you write! Keep warm and enjoy Portugal!
There are problems with immigration in every “developed” country. I have often thought about the underlying causes which make people want to immigrate. The developed countries seem only interested in exploiting resources from the lesser developed countries, or controlling regimes that favor their own economic or geo-political interests. The result is those undeveloped countries stay undeveloped. Their economies cannot provide for their own people. This condition fosters social strife, internal warfare, ethnic conflicts, sickness and hunger, such that people see their most hopeful choice is to immigrate.
We need to elect leaders willing to address those problems underlying immigration, not to scape-goat immigrants blaming them for our own.
Just my opinion.
It is very telling to see all the billboards and posters put up for Ventura/CHEGA not just here in VRSA, but all over Portugal. They have a lot of money. Where are they getting it? Hmmm.